Every once in a while there's a compelling
research report issued in the Concrete
Canyon that goes virtually unnoticed. Wall Street, so often caught
up in the mood of the market 'right now,' sometimes drifts past data
and fails to fully-publicize information that reveals fertile ground
and investment opportunities.
That may have been the case with U.S.
Global Investors' infrastructure report.
The report, entitled "Infrastructure:
A Global Opportunity for Investors" notes that $41 trillion
will be needed to modernize urban water, electricity, and
transportation systems globally, during the 2005-2030 period,
according to an estimate by Booz Allen Hamilton. In the United States,
the figure is $1.6 trillion, according to research by the American
Society of Civil Engineers. There are two distinct but massive
infrastructure tasks: in emerging markets, a massive build-out to
support growth; in the United States and the developed world, a focus
on repair and replacement, according to U.S. Global Investors.
An aging infrastructure
What is the U.S.'s primary infrastructure problems? Poor road
conditions that cost U.S. motorists $54 billion a year in repairs and
operating costs, massive public underinvestment in the nation's
drinking water system, an inadequate energy infrastructure and a
limited rail network that's creating significant delays for the first
time since World War II, among other infrastructure deficiencies.
Still, the above is not to say that the United States will commit to
repairing all of the above systems, or commit $1.6 trillion. The
nation's defense needs, already above $1.2 trillion in cost for the
combined War on Terror and Iraq War, are likely to require
considerable funding for the foreseeable future and will undoubtedly
divert some funds away from infrastructure projects.
However, while it's difficult to pinpoint an end year for the War on
Terror given its asymmetries, it is plausible to suggest that major
hostilities in the Iraq War, but not necessarily a
universally-recognized peace, will occur in the years ahead. If it
does, it will free-up some funds for U.S. infrastructure repair.
Benefits for U.S.
Further, Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of U.S. Global
Investors, goes on to state that when the infrastructure rebuild
occurs in the U.S., the nation will experience a double-benefit.
First, it will help create the infrastructure systems required for
future economic growth, for the United States of the 21st century.
Second, and perhaps not as obvious, the rebuild will create hundreds
of thousands of good-paying, domestic jobs -- in construction,
engineering, maintenance, design, and the like; the societal and
economic spin-off effect from these jobs-with-disposable income can
not be underestimated, in Holmes view.
Economic Analysis: U.S. Global Investors' report is a
research document worth reading. It suggests an infrastructure
spending era not seen since perhaps the President
Franklin D. Roosevelt's New
Deal, assuming public funds are available and credit markets
remain reasonably healthy. If the rebuild occurs, that also suggests
promising opportunities for numerous infrastructure-oriented stocks,
which I'll review in future blogs.